[Login to see the link] - a few things: the double-blind, placebo controlled trial is not the best type of study humans have devised. The best type of study is a systematic review and meta-analysis of every study done on a topic. Those studies have been done, and produced the finding that circumcision leads to a 60% relative risk reduction in the Southern African context. Also, the US/EU was not a randomized controlled trial. And there are dozens of confounding factors: terrible access to health care in the EU; higher stigma of AIDS and same sex relationship; higher income inequality; much worse sexual education, etc.
It is also not true that this research is based entirely on 3 studies from the 2000s. A [Login to see the link] looked at those three RCTs, plus two extended follow-up of former RCT participants, five cohorts of men at high HIV risk, four community-based cohorts before and six during circumcision scale-up, and two studies of changes in HIV prevalence in men by circumcision status during circumcision scale-up.
I would also note that, by default, I am opposed to routine circumcision, so my conclusion here runs counter to my confirmation bias. My outlook is simply that I am not epidemiologist, so I should trust the gold standard of scientific evidence– systematic reviews and metanalysis– of which there are now a few, all concluding that these programs prevent HIV transmission. Somehow this is characterized as ‘mental gymnastics’, while others cut and paste GIFs and stuff they found on reddit.